In autumn 2025 Russian drone and airspace incursions over NATO territory exposed a dangerous new source of ambiguity in Europe’s security environment. As routine military friction, deliberate signalling, and civilian drone activity increasingly overlap, the risk of miscalculation is growing. This analysis examines how NATO members can manage escalation risks in an era of drone proliferation - by improving attribution, calibrating responses, and distinguishing incidents that matter from those that do not.